The Great Climate Furphy

Earlier this week Gerry, an enthusiastic member of the Institute of Public Affairs, sent us this email:

Could I suggest, if you haven’t already, you produce a time line of climate related predictions by scientists and people of influence. If such a report has already been produced could you please direct me to it.”

As if on cue our friends at the Climate Study Group have produced another important and informative article, published on page 9 of The Australian newspaper today, on the “The Great Climate Furphy” (for non-Australians, ‘Furphy’ is explained), and to get it started they provide three such dud predictions. An extract of the introductory and closing text appears below, followed by an image of the whole article. You can download the PDF here, or as an image here.

“Climate predictions using computer models based on the atmospheric level of carbon dioxide (CO2) include:

  • A 2007 Australian forecast predicting that global warming was so baking the soil that even the rain that falls wouldn’t fill our dams. Instead, dams for Brisbane, Canberra and Sydney later filled to overflowing.
  • In 2012 the Griffith School of Environment forecast that by 2020 there would be no snow. The 2021 season has in fact commenced with record snow.
  • Severe hurricanes would become more frequent. In fact, there has been a downward trend in both severity and frequency (source in image).

Models with dire predictions like these have misdirected energy policy. What follows explains why models have failed…

(in conclusion) … The Australian Government must cease subsidising renewables and allow technologies to compete on their own merit. Policy must also not impede building new efficient coal and/or nuclear power stations similar to those being built in other countries to ensure reliable competitive baseload power for Australian industry.”

Meanwhile, I’ll send this to Gerry and mention that compiling a list of the dud climate predictions is the work of a lifetime! That said, if you do know of such lists please get in touch.

The article as it appeared in The Australian is below:

The prior article from the Climate Study Group was posted here.

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